US NFP to rise by 1,150K in July – Goldman Sachs

As the global market players brace for US employment data for July, Goldman came out with its hawkish expectations of 1,150K for the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), as well as a 0.4% drop in the Unemployment Rate to 5.5%, in their latest report.

Key quotes

Labor supply constraints eased further due to the wind-down of federal unemployment top-ups in some states and the addition of over 2 million youth job seekers in June and July.

Strong household employment gain offset by a sizable rise in the participation rate.

We also note little impact on dining activity in response to the Delta variant.

Market implications

Given the hawkish expectations, the recent optimism in the market could gain major support, which in turn plays negative for the US dollar and favor the AUD/USD.

Read: AUD/USD regains 0.7400 on market optimism, RBA’s Lowe, US NFP eyed