China Caixin Manufacturing PMI overview

Given the surprisingly upbeat prints of China’s official Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for November, traders of the commodity-linked currencies, especially the Australian dollar (AUD), are all waiting for Caixin Manufacturing PMI. November month data, up for publishing at 01:45 GMT on Monday, is expected to come in at 51.4 versus 51.7 prior.

It’s worth mentioning that recent data from Australia have been mixed and hence fail to provide any clear guidelines about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy moves on Tuesday. As a result, economics from the largest customer China will be the key to watch.

Westpac also follows the market consensus while saying,

“The November China unofficial manufacturing PMI (Markit, sponsored by Caixin) is due at 12:45 pm Sydney/9:45 am local. The survey has been firmer than the official survey (released Sat) for some time. The consensus is 51.5.”

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

An upbeat print of Caixin Manufacturing PMI, backed by the positive official data, could keep the Aussie traders happy for the time being. However, fresh doubts over the phase-one trade deal between the United States (US) and China could gain additional strength to drag the AUD/USD pair towards mid-October low, near 0.6720, during the otherwise case. On the upside, 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6800 can act as immediate resistance.

Key Notes

AUD/USD Forecast: Bearish trend could be temporarily interrupted

AUD/USD treads water in bearish territories ahead of key event week

About the China Caixin PMI

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™ is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.