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22 May 2014
Key events on Thursday - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, walks us through the main risk events to watch for this Thursday.
Key Quotes
"Asia’s key release is the ‘flash’ May reading on the China manufacturing PMI from HSBC/Markit (11:45am Syd/9:45am local). This survey continues to run well below the official version, printing at 48.1 in April versus 50.4 for the much larger official survey. AUD, NZD and Asian currencies remain sensitive to this report though, so any notable divergence from the 48.3 median forecast will spark a response. A small rise on the month seems fair but it’s hard to see a reading above say 48.5 given trends in the sub-indices. We don’t expect a substantial improvement in China’s industrial sector momentum until late 2014."
"Advance May readings on Markit PMIs are also due for Japan (11:35am Syd/9:35am Sing/HK, a new report as far as we can tell) and Europe. The first of the European PMIs is France (3pm Sing/HK). The final April readings on manufacturing were 51.2 in France, 54.1 in Germany and 53.4 for the Eurozone overall. In the UK we will see the second estimate of Q1 GDP, with consensus for no revision from the advance reading of 0.8% q/q, 3.1% y/y, but Westpac seeing a good chance of a bump up to 0.9%."
"The US data calendar features initial jobless claims for the week including the May employment survey and Apr existing home sales, with consensus +2.2% m/m, still a long way below the mid-2013 high. SF Fed president Williams speaks to a trade conference."
Key Quotes
"Asia’s key release is the ‘flash’ May reading on the China manufacturing PMI from HSBC/Markit (11:45am Syd/9:45am local). This survey continues to run well below the official version, printing at 48.1 in April versus 50.4 for the much larger official survey. AUD, NZD and Asian currencies remain sensitive to this report though, so any notable divergence from the 48.3 median forecast will spark a response. A small rise on the month seems fair but it’s hard to see a reading above say 48.5 given trends in the sub-indices. We don’t expect a substantial improvement in China’s industrial sector momentum until late 2014."
"Advance May readings on Markit PMIs are also due for Japan (11:35am Syd/9:35am Sing/HK, a new report as far as we can tell) and Europe. The first of the European PMIs is France (3pm Sing/HK). The final April readings on manufacturing were 51.2 in France, 54.1 in Germany and 53.4 for the Eurozone overall. In the UK we will see the second estimate of Q1 GDP, with consensus for no revision from the advance reading of 0.8% q/q, 3.1% y/y, but Westpac seeing a good chance of a bump up to 0.9%."
"The US data calendar features initial jobless claims for the week including the May employment survey and Apr existing home sales, with consensus +2.2% m/m, still a long way below the mid-2013 high. SF Fed president Williams speaks to a trade conference."