UK: Economy revolving around Brexit – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that the UK PM May confirmed yesterday that should her deal be rejected by March 12, then the PM will put forward the choice to MPs of a no-deal Brexit vote on March 13 and should that be rejected, then a vote on extending Article 50 will be put forward on March 14.

Key Quotes

“We know that May would ask for a short and one-off extension (not beyond June) but we don’t know what the EU will agree to and we won’t know for sure until the EU engage on the issue.”

“Bloomberg has previously reported some EU officials as saying they would back an extension of as much as 21 months but the truth is we won’t really know until closer to the above dates.”

“GBP/USD rallied throughout the session yesterday, ending +1.21% stronger, its best performance since last November. We’re reading at $1.3248 overnight which is the highest since last July. EUR/GBP is now at 0.857 and the strongest since May 2017. We should add that our FX strategists yesterday reinstated their Sterling long trade in light of recent developments and target 0.84 in EUR/GBP.”