USD/TRY: Short-term bullish correction - Commerzbank

Analysts at Commerzbank, point out the USD/TRY pair posted a close above the 4 month downtrend line and confirmed a short-term correction higher.

Key Quotes: 

“USD/TRY’s minor stabilisation above the November low at 5.1331 is ongoing with it remaining above the 2018 support line and the 200 day moving average at 5.0560. If reached, we would expect the cross to stabilise there, something the positive divergence on the daily RSI is pointing to as well.”

“If a continued decline were to be seen, however, the May and mid-July highs at 4.9624/4.9233 may also be reached. The currency pair may well stabilise there. Minor resistance sits between the 5.5329 mid-October low, the 5.5423 November high and the 55 day moving average at 5.5921.”

“While the cross remains below the mid-August low and the late October high at 5.6972/5.8692, we will retain our medium term bearish forecast.”