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18 Apr 2014
NZD/CAD uptrend to remain firm - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - The FX Team at TDS continues to favour longs in NZD/CAD, due to the diverging central banks monetary policies.
Key Quotes
"RBNZ estimates the neutral interest rate is 4.5%. This means that, under the policy tightening path currently expected by the markets, the OCR would remain stimulatory for a period over a year before reaching its neutral level. Our Asia-Pacific colleagues expect the OCR to be at 4% one year from now."
"Given that New Zealand’s economy has already closed its output gap and that it is poised to grow above potential for the next two years, albeit small, the risks appear to be tilted for a moderately more aggressive tightening by the RBNZ than what has been priced in the OIS curve."
"Contrarily, the Bank of Canada is not expected to raise its policy rate from its current 1% level for quite some time, likely until the third quarter of next year at the earliest, as core inflation remains well below its target and the BoC expects it to reach 2% by late 2015. This means interest rate spreads between Canada and New Zealand will remain wide, supporting NZDCAD."
Key Quotes
"RBNZ estimates the neutral interest rate is 4.5%. This means that, under the policy tightening path currently expected by the markets, the OCR would remain stimulatory for a period over a year before reaching its neutral level. Our Asia-Pacific colleagues expect the OCR to be at 4% one year from now."
"Given that New Zealand’s economy has already closed its output gap and that it is poised to grow above potential for the next two years, albeit small, the risks appear to be tilted for a moderately more aggressive tightening by the RBNZ than what has been priced in the OIS curve."
"Contrarily, the Bank of Canada is not expected to raise its policy rate from its current 1% level for quite some time, likely until the third quarter of next year at the earliest, as core inflation remains well below its target and the BoC expects it to reach 2% by late 2015. This means interest rate spreads between Canada and New Zealand will remain wide, supporting NZDCAD."