When are the China data releases and how could they affect the AUD/USD?

The China data overview

The China trade balance, scheduled for release at 02:00 GMT, is expected to show the surplus narrowed to CNY 179 billion in March from the February figure of 224.9 billion.

Export growth is seen decelerating sharply to 10 percent year-on-year from 44.5 percent. Meanwhile, imports are forecasted to rise 10 percent in March, up from February's print of 6.3 percent.

A better-than-expected trade surplus could put a bid under the Chinese Yuan and the Australian dollar (also considered as a proxy for China. That said, a sustained rally in AUD could be seen if China reports a solid rise in the imports of copper and iron ore (key Aussie exports). On the other hand, a worse-than-expected surplus, and more importantly a sharp drop in the imports of copper and iron ore could weigh over the Aussie dollar.

Also, risk assets, in general, could be influenced by China's trade surplus with the US. A bigger number would mean the US will likely stick to tough China trade stance.

Deviation impact on AUD/USD  

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 18 to 20=2 pips in deviations up to 3.10 to -0.57, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 50 pips.

About the China trade data

The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.