Dollar Index holds above 90.00 ahead of Boao forum and US CPI, Fed minutes
- DXY holds above 90.00, gains capped by trade war fears.
- Eyes XI's speech at Boao forum, US CPI and Fed minutes due later this week.
The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the greenback against majors, remains above 90.00 but struggles to find strong hands, courtesy of trade war fears.
As of writing, the DXY is trading at 90.18, having witnessed bullish exhaustion in the 90.60 neighborhood in the previous two trading days. The retreat from Friday's high of 90.60 could be associated with the fears of a trade war and the resulting risk aversion in the stocks. Meanwhile, the dismal US non-farm payroll headline number did not help the matters either.
Week Ahead: Focus on XI's speech and US CPI, Fed minutes
China's President Xi Jinping is widely expected to unveil economic reforms during his speech at Boao Forum for Asia (Davos-like event) and could comment on Trump administration's barrage of tariff threats. The dollar will likely take a hit if Xi uses strong words, triggering a flight to safety. On the other hand, soft tone on trade dispute could calm market nerves and send the greenback higher, especially against the haven currencies.
On the economic front, the US inflation number and the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) March on Wednesday will hog the limelight. However, the key releases are unlikely to change the market's expectations for tightening, according to Kathy Lien from BK Asset Management.
Dollar Index Technical Levels
A move above $90.60 (Friday's high) would expose resistance lined up at 90.93 (March 1 high) and 91.10 (100-day moving average). On the downside, breach of support at 89.81 (50-day moving average) could yield a deeper pullback to 88.94 (March 27 low) and 88.55 (Feb. 1 low).