Japan: Abe’s popularity declines on expected lines – Nomura

Yujiro Goto, Research Analyst at Nomura, point out that two opinion polls were released over the weekend, showed a similar downtrend in the in popularity of the Japanese cabinet.

Key Quotes

“A Nikkei poll showed the cabinet job approval rating has declined to 42% from 56% the previous month, while an ANN poll shows that the rating has declined to 33% from 44% since February. Opinion polls conducted during the previous weekend showed the rating has declined by 9-14%, and two new polls displayed a similar magnitude of decline. Job approval ratings based on the Nikkei poll are still slightly higher than the previous lows (38% in July 2015 and 39% in July 2017). The latest land scandal has deteriorated the popularity of Abe cabinet, but the level of popularity rating has not shown than an immediate resignation of PM Abe is likely.”

“Nikkei poll shows that voters’ support for major parties have not been influenced much by the latest land scandal. LDP support declined slightly to 40% from 42% the previous month. Its junior coalition partner, Komeito, is supported by 4% of respondents, so support for the ruling coalition still appears healthy. The popularity ratings for opposition parties were largely unchanged: the popularity rating of the CDPJ inched up to 12% from 11% the previous month, but the rating for DP and PoH stayed unchanged (2% and 1%, respectively).”

“Less support for opposition parties means regime change in the LDP/Komeito coalition is still very unlikely, while the LDP leadership election in September is important. The Nikkei poll shows that Mr. Ishiba is viewed as the most appropriate LDP leader from 25% of respondents, marginally higher than PM Abe (24%). Among LDP supporters, PM Abe still leads over Mr. Ishiba (47% versus 18%) though.”