Forex Today: USD sidelined, Aussie falls on weaker capex data, a quiet calendar ahead
The US Dollar consolidated overnight retracement from 1-week high led by the latest FOMC meeting minutes that revealed a desire to raise interest-rates "fairly soon" but expressed concerns over the US President Donald Trump's proposed fiscal policies. The greenback retracement, however, has been modest amid growing bets for an imminent Fed rate-hike move, as early as at the March meeting.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar came under some fresh selling pressure following more-than-expected drop in private capital expenditure, recording a fall of 2.1% for the fourth-quarter of 2016. The reading was worse than market expectations but was still better-than previous quarter's drop of 3.3% (revised from -4.0% reported earlier).
With the exception of weekly jobless claims data from the US, there are no major market moving economic data due for release on Thursday. However, remarks from the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan would be looked upon for some impetus for short-term trading opportunities.
Main topics in Asia
March Fed rate hike is off the table - CME data
CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices show markets see only a 22 % probability of a rate hike in March.
EUR/USD - What’s behind the sharp rebound from 1.05?
EUR/USD staged a strong recovery on Wednesday from the low of 1.0494 to 1.0557 and currently trades around 1.0550 levels.
AUD/USD bears back in control after poor CAPEX report
AUD/USD has had a hard time on the back of the recent data in the CAPEX and a key component to the RBA's decision-making process in respect to the economy and investment for future growth.
BOJ's Kiuchi says current pace of bond buying is unsustainable
Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Kiuchi said today that the central bank may soon face difficutly in buying bonds if it continues the QE program at the current pace.
Key focus for the day ahead
Fed minutes scatter the birds and dollar rally sucks wind - AmpGFX
Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the recently releases FOMC minutes were a confusing set of minutes that say, on the one hand, many want to raise fairly soon, but on the other, many say there is likely to be ample time to respond if signs of rising inflation pressure emerge.
Italy: To trigger or not to trigger elections – Rabobank
Maartje Wijffelaars, Economist at Rabobank, notes that the Renzi has resigned as party leader, but he is likely to make a comeback in the spring and early elections are in the cards for Italy, although Rabobank believe more likely in the fall than in June.
Why Gold has been going nowhere?
Gold has been restricted largely to a range of $1230-1243 levels over the last one week. Occasional dip below $1230 has proved to be short lived.
Oil: Sharp move, probably on the upside coming? - Natixis
In view of the Micaella Feldstein, Research Analyst at Natixis, the daily volatility has remained very low for Brent since December, which is a forerunner of a sharp move, probably on the upside considering the buy signals on the daily indicators.