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21 Mar 2016
The spectre of Brexit: An acid test for CEE – SocGen
Research Team at Societe Generale, suggests that the nuances and risks to the perceived halo of the CEE region are of paramount importance, particularly as the region swung into focus post-ECB.
Key Quotes
“The significant spectre of a Brexit scenario, remains a likely marginal consideration for CEE investors. Our view is that the economic impact of UK leaving the EU, while negative for the CEE, is surmountable and well-mitigated by the pickup in domestic demand.
Meanwhile, local assets are vulnerable to the EU-wide uncertainties connected to Brexit, which can (temporarily) weaken their safe-haven perception compared with EM peers.
Regional proxy status for Poland exposes the PLN to the highest selling pressure, while negative growth spillovers could prolong the use of the EUR/CZK floor. HUF rate markets are possibly the best places to pay rates in anticipation of a EUR rate shock and peripheral spread widening.”
Key Quotes
“The significant spectre of a Brexit scenario, remains a likely marginal consideration for CEE investors. Our view is that the economic impact of UK leaving the EU, while negative for the CEE, is surmountable and well-mitigated by the pickup in domestic demand.
Meanwhile, local assets are vulnerable to the EU-wide uncertainties connected to Brexit, which can (temporarily) weaken their safe-haven perception compared with EM peers.
Regional proxy status for Poland exposes the PLN to the highest selling pressure, while negative growth spillovers could prolong the use of the EUR/CZK floor. HUF rate markets are possibly the best places to pay rates in anticipation of a EUR rate shock and peripheral spread widening.”