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21 Mar 2016
EUR/USD forecasts: focus on risk trends – UOB and Danske Bank
EUR/USD has started the week on a weak note, coming down from recent tops above the 1.1300 handle to the current 1.1265/60 band.
“In our main scenario, EUR/USD will rise in 6-12M despite some upside in US rates further out as EUR-positive fundamentals dominate. We are rolling our forecasts, now looking for 1.14 (previously 1.10) in 6M and 1.18 (previously 1.16) in 12M and stress that it will take a combination of Brexit fears and a marked repricing of the Fed in a more hawkish direction to send the cross below 1.10 near term”, suggested Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Christin Tuxen.
In addition, the research team at UOB Group noted “The bullish EUR phase that started on 11 Mar is still intact even though we are faced with strong resistance at 1.1375 (high in early December 2015). Only a clear break above this level would open up the way for a move to 1.1495. Stop-loss for the bullish view remains unchanged at 1.1200”.
“In our main scenario, EUR/USD will rise in 6-12M despite some upside in US rates further out as EUR-positive fundamentals dominate. We are rolling our forecasts, now looking for 1.14 (previously 1.10) in 6M and 1.18 (previously 1.16) in 12M and stress that it will take a combination of Brexit fears and a marked repricing of the Fed in a more hawkish direction to send the cross below 1.10 near term”, suggested Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Christin Tuxen.
In addition, the research team at UOB Group noted “The bullish EUR phase that started on 11 Mar is still intact even though we are faced with strong resistance at 1.1375 (high in early December 2015). Only a clear break above this level would open up the way for a move to 1.1495. Stop-loss for the bullish view remains unchanged at 1.1200”.