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9 Dec 2015
Asia taking up driving seat - Westpac
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac explained the key events ahead.
Key Quotes:
"The Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index will be released at 10:30am Syd/7:30am Sing/HK. The index printed at 101.7 in Nov, above 100 for the first time since May despite the banks’ increase in the standard variable mortgage rates in the month.
The Dec survey will reflect the better than expected Q3 GDP release but also commodity prices entering a renewed slide and the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets showing clear signs of slowing.
Australia Oct housing finance data is due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Industry data suggests that the number of owner occupier loans fell in Oct and Westpac is expecting -1.5% m/m for the headline measure (market median -1.0%). The total value of loans, including investor lending as well, is likely to show an even bigger decline.
We will see China inflation data at 12:30pm Syd/9:30am local. Nov CPI is expected at 1.4% y/y and PPI at -6.0%. There should again be little tension over these figures as policy remains focused on growth and inflation is not a barrier to further easing.
The RBNZ policy decision will be announced 9am local/7am Syd Thu/3pm NY Wed. Most forecasters expect a 25bp cut to 2.5% while market pricing implies just over 60% probability of a cut. This is a highly uncertain OCR review and could produce large market reactions in either direction.
Westpac expects the RBNZ to reduce rates as dairy prices has fallen, the exchange rate has risen, inflation has been low and the Auckland housing market has slowed. We see these factors as outweighing robust domestic data and the likelihood of a Fed hike."
Key Quotes:
"The Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index will be released at 10:30am Syd/7:30am Sing/HK. The index printed at 101.7 in Nov, above 100 for the first time since May despite the banks’ increase in the standard variable mortgage rates in the month.
The Dec survey will reflect the better than expected Q3 GDP release but also commodity prices entering a renewed slide and the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets showing clear signs of slowing.
Australia Oct housing finance data is due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Industry data suggests that the number of owner occupier loans fell in Oct and Westpac is expecting -1.5% m/m for the headline measure (market median -1.0%). The total value of loans, including investor lending as well, is likely to show an even bigger decline.
We will see China inflation data at 12:30pm Syd/9:30am local. Nov CPI is expected at 1.4% y/y and PPI at -6.0%. There should again be little tension over these figures as policy remains focused on growth and inflation is not a barrier to further easing.
The RBNZ policy decision will be announced 9am local/7am Syd Thu/3pm NY Wed. Most forecasters expect a 25bp cut to 2.5% while market pricing implies just over 60% probability of a cut. This is a highly uncertain OCR review and could produce large market reactions in either direction.
Westpac expects the RBNZ to reduce rates as dairy prices has fallen, the exchange rate has risen, inflation has been low and the Auckland housing market has slowed. We see these factors as outweighing robust domestic data and the likelihood of a Fed hike."