Back
1 Dec 2015
CFTC: extremely bearish in metals - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the Week Ending November 24th, 2015.
Key Quotes:
"WTI specs longs have begun to toss in the towel (-7% w/w), as crude storage in the US continues to see building inventory during a period in which seasonally we should see draw downs, leaving prices at risk of heading lower, especially with the OPEC likely to maintain their current production course.
Platinum specs had very little to get excited about on the positive end and with little in the way of fundamental drivers on the week, we've see trend chasing traders jump on the bandwagon, adding substantially to short positions (+12% w/w). However, price downside momentum has slowed, leaving the latest few weeks of outsized shifts in spec sentiment at risk of seeing a short-covering squeeze on positive news.
With this year's copper disruptions and cutbacks failing to trigger enough of a supply side reaction to waning Chinese demand, and manufacturing set to slide further in November, copper specs continue to shift deeper into net short territory, now at 18% net short. Even with prices setting new cyclical lows, further downside is not out of the question without structural changes, judging by the historical net short positioning lows of around 30%, reached during extremely bearish conditions for the metal."
Key Quotes:
"WTI specs longs have begun to toss in the towel (-7% w/w), as crude storage in the US continues to see building inventory during a period in which seasonally we should see draw downs, leaving prices at risk of heading lower, especially with the OPEC likely to maintain their current production course.
Platinum specs had very little to get excited about on the positive end and with little in the way of fundamental drivers on the week, we've see trend chasing traders jump on the bandwagon, adding substantially to short positions (+12% w/w). However, price downside momentum has slowed, leaving the latest few weeks of outsized shifts in spec sentiment at risk of seeing a short-covering squeeze on positive news.
With this year's copper disruptions and cutbacks failing to trigger enough of a supply side reaction to waning Chinese demand, and manufacturing set to slide further in November, copper specs continue to shift deeper into net short territory, now at 18% net short. Even with prices setting new cyclical lows, further downside is not out of the question without structural changes, judging by the historical net short positioning lows of around 30%, reached during extremely bearish conditions for the metal."