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30 Nov 2015
SNB worried about ECB expanding QE - UBS
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Thin market conditions, which are usual on a Black Friday, might have invited the Swiss National Bank to purchase some euros as the SNB remains worried about ECB next steps, according to the UBS analyst team.
“There was no official confirmation, from this institution... so we have to guess what happened, i.e. why the EUR/CHF Exchange made a sudden jump on Friday from 1.086 to 1.092. It would make sense for the SNB to use thin market conditions ahead of the weekend to lift the exchange rate ahead of a troublesome week.”
“The SNB is certainly worried, about the indication of the ECB that it is likely to expand the current program on quantitative easing. Our UBS base case is an interest rate cut of 10 to 20 basis points and an intention to lengthen the time horizon by at least another three to six months. Our expectation is fairly in line with market expectations. But be aware, Mario Draghi managed to surprise at each and every occasion, when such an important announcement was due.”
“We believe the SNB knows this and most investors probably do know it too. In that light, our expectation for EUR/CHF is that the exchange rate is likely to fall back again and eventually reach our three month forecast of 1.06. This might happen before the ECB meeting, right after the meeting or after the 10 December meeting of the SNB. There at the latest, markets should realize that the SNB has a limited room to act against further CHF strength. It can not intervene deliberately and there are limits to putting interest rates even more into the negative. Therefore buying some euros on Black Friday is an option, that might help temporarily. It is certainly not a long-term plan to solve a tricky situation.”
“There was no official confirmation, from this institution... so we have to guess what happened, i.e. why the EUR/CHF Exchange made a sudden jump on Friday from 1.086 to 1.092. It would make sense for the SNB to use thin market conditions ahead of the weekend to lift the exchange rate ahead of a troublesome week.”
“The SNB is certainly worried, about the indication of the ECB that it is likely to expand the current program on quantitative easing. Our UBS base case is an interest rate cut of 10 to 20 basis points and an intention to lengthen the time horizon by at least another three to six months. Our expectation is fairly in line with market expectations. But be aware, Mario Draghi managed to surprise at each and every occasion, when such an important announcement was due.”
“We believe the SNB knows this and most investors probably do know it too. In that light, our expectation for EUR/CHF is that the exchange rate is likely to fall back again and eventually reach our three month forecast of 1.06. This might happen before the ECB meeting, right after the meeting or after the 10 December meeting of the SNB. There at the latest, markets should realize that the SNB has a limited room to act against further CHF strength. It can not intervene deliberately and there are limits to putting interest rates even more into the negative. Therefore buying some euros on Black Friday is an option, that might help temporarily. It is certainly not a long-term plan to solve a tricky situation.”