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1 Oct 2013
RBA next: Impact on the AUD/USD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD continues to show a combatant spirit ahead of the RBA decision, following a short-lived fall sub 0.93 just minuted before a downbeat China PMI was published.
Now the key event to follow is the RBA monetary policy decision, which is widely expected to keep rates on hold, while more uncertainty will surround the tone of the release.
Expectations in the policy stance, have recently moved from dovish to more neutral, thus the RBA statement will be again key, despite, some analysts such as John Noonan, Head of IFR Markets, expect the statement to be mostly unchanged from its prior.
Earlier on the session, a report titled "what you need to know ahead of the RBA" gave readers early insights into the current state of affairs concerning the RBA policy decision. With regards to the Australian Dollar outlook, the pair looks poised to remain under selling pressure as long as sellers can disallow sustainable breaks above 0.9350.
In the scenario that the RBA surprises striking a dovish tone, the area of support at 0.9280 will come under immediate focus, with a break lower attracting further sellers aiming to fill up the gap from Sept 13. It goes without saying that an 'off the bat' rate cut today may see the AUD/USD rate decline in the tune of 100 pips as it would take the market by surprise.
Should the RBA keep a more neutral tone in the statement, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD challenges 0.9350, with the degree of momentum to break above it largely dependable on whether the RBA talks down the AUD, highlights concerns on the housing sector and how it perceives the latest domestic indicators.
Now the key event to follow is the RBA monetary policy decision, which is widely expected to keep rates on hold, while more uncertainty will surround the tone of the release.
Expectations in the policy stance, have recently moved from dovish to more neutral, thus the RBA statement will be again key, despite, some analysts such as John Noonan, Head of IFR Markets, expect the statement to be mostly unchanged from its prior.
Earlier on the session, a report titled "what you need to know ahead of the RBA" gave readers early insights into the current state of affairs concerning the RBA policy decision. With regards to the Australian Dollar outlook, the pair looks poised to remain under selling pressure as long as sellers can disallow sustainable breaks above 0.9350.
In the scenario that the RBA surprises striking a dovish tone, the area of support at 0.9280 will come under immediate focus, with a break lower attracting further sellers aiming to fill up the gap from Sept 13. It goes without saying that an 'off the bat' rate cut today may see the AUD/USD rate decline in the tune of 100 pips as it would take the market by surprise.
Should the RBA keep a more neutral tone in the statement, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD challenges 0.9350, with the degree of momentum to break above it largely dependable on whether the RBA talks down the AUD, highlights concerns on the housing sector and how it perceives the latest domestic indicators.