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17 Sep 2015
FOMC: Don’t expect fireworks today, Fed may hold its fire till December – Rabobank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Michael Every, Research Analyst at Rabobank, suggests that he is not expecting any move today, with our Fed watcher Philip Marey still sticking to his long-held view that December presents a more likely date.
Key Quotes
“Global markets will be on tenterhooks ahead of the key decision over whether we get to see the first Fed rate hike since mid-2006 or not. For some in the market this could be the first time they will have ever seen the US actually raise rates; that, and the fact that markets are so obviously hyper-ventilating over the prospect of a mere 25bp hike, should speak volumes about the underlying state of the global economy at present.”
“Yesterday’s CPI print came in -0.1% m-o-m and 0.2% y-o-y, with even core CPI up just 1.8% y-o-y vs. 1.9% expected. Likewise this week we’ve seen retail sales of only 2.2% y-o-y (vs. 4.7% in November last year); industrial production at a limp 0.9% y-o-y (again vs. 4.7% in November); and we already know that the widest measure of unemployment is still at a worrying 10.3% and average earnings growth at only 2.2% (and even that not evenly distributed between professions).”
“In short, if the Fed do opt to ‘go’, the recent sell-off in longer dated Treasuries (US 10-year yields at 2.29% at time of writing) does not seem likely to last for long, with a flatter, rather than steeper, curve arguably more likely.”
Key Quotes
“Global markets will be on tenterhooks ahead of the key decision over whether we get to see the first Fed rate hike since mid-2006 or not. For some in the market this could be the first time they will have ever seen the US actually raise rates; that, and the fact that markets are so obviously hyper-ventilating over the prospect of a mere 25bp hike, should speak volumes about the underlying state of the global economy at present.”
“Yesterday’s CPI print came in -0.1% m-o-m and 0.2% y-o-y, with even core CPI up just 1.8% y-o-y vs. 1.9% expected. Likewise this week we’ve seen retail sales of only 2.2% y-o-y (vs. 4.7% in November last year); industrial production at a limp 0.9% y-o-y (again vs. 4.7% in November); and we already know that the widest measure of unemployment is still at a worrying 10.3% and average earnings growth at only 2.2% (and even that not evenly distributed between professions).”
“In short, if the Fed do opt to ‘go’, the recent sell-off in longer dated Treasuries (US 10-year yields at 2.29% at time of writing) does not seem likely to last for long, with a flatter, rather than steeper, curve arguably more likely.”