Back
17 Sep 2015
FOMC: commodity and risk currencies at risk - SG
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Societe Generale explained that if market pricing reflects different degrees of conviction about the likelihood of a rate hike, then a move is likely to cause risk aversion as the front end of the US yield curve re-prices. But longer-dated US yields may not rise much if at all.
Key Quotes:
"That suggests we would be likely to see the G3 currencies rally against those more correlated with equities/commodities/risk, but not necessarily move much between each other. EUR/USD correlates far more at the moment with 10-year spreads than 2-year ones and might well simply stay in its range. The yen is the only currency that has out-performed the dollar in the 6 months after the start of each of the last 4 Fed rate-hiking cycles."
Key Quotes:
"That suggests we would be likely to see the G3 currencies rally against those more correlated with equities/commodities/risk, but not necessarily move much between each other. EUR/USD correlates far more at the moment with 10-year spreads than 2-year ones and might well simply stay in its range. The yen is the only currency that has out-performed the dollar in the 6 months after the start of each of the last 4 Fed rate-hiking cycles."