Back
16 Oct 2014
AUD/JPY: Macro bids at 61.8% fib, sellers still upper hand
FXStreet (Bali) - AUD/JPY ended a wild volatile Wednesday in positive territory, a surprising bullish outcome given the massive sell-off in US equities, despite exhibiting some vigorous rebounds towards the close.
AUD/JPY found its lowest for the day at 92.18 - perfectly aligning with the 61.8% fib retrac from the 88.20-98.70 - before a spectacular bounce worth Y1.4 to 94.00 round number, only to see liquidity dry up for a fall back towards 93.25, current price ahead of Tokyo. A slew of disappointing U.S. data, the US Center for Disease Control reporting that latest US ebola victim had symptoms while traveling on a plane, EU growth concerns, all contributed to see 10-yr Treasury yields collapse, leading to massive Yen appreciation before macros stepped in to reset Yen shorts.
Technically, as explained yesterday - downside risks remain -, sellers are the force in control, with strength still perceived as selling opportunities amid an unfriendly risk environment. As long as sellers keep prices below the 200-day EMA, lower levels is the greater risk going forward, although be aware that the vigorous recovery off lows warrants caution of a potential intraday challenge by fast money accounts, despite it requires a re-take of the 100-hourly MA - around 93.80 now - for further buyers to re-group aiming for additional upward pressure.
AUD/JPY found its lowest for the day at 92.18 - perfectly aligning with the 61.8% fib retrac from the 88.20-98.70 - before a spectacular bounce worth Y1.4 to 94.00 round number, only to see liquidity dry up for a fall back towards 93.25, current price ahead of Tokyo. A slew of disappointing U.S. data, the US Center for Disease Control reporting that latest US ebola victim had symptoms while traveling on a plane, EU growth concerns, all contributed to see 10-yr Treasury yields collapse, leading to massive Yen appreciation before macros stepped in to reset Yen shorts.
Technically, as explained yesterday - downside risks remain -, sellers are the force in control, with strength still perceived as selling opportunities amid an unfriendly risk environment. As long as sellers keep prices below the 200-day EMA, lower levels is the greater risk going forward, although be aware that the vigorous recovery off lows warrants caution of a potential intraday challenge by fast money accounts, despite it requires a re-take of the 100-hourly MA - around 93.80 now - for further buyers to re-group aiming for additional upward pressure.