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24 Sep 2014
Yuan to remain stable even on broad USD strength - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - RMB will remain stable even if the broad USD strengthens, notes Daniel Hui, FX Strategist at JP Morgan.
Key Quotes
"RMB will remain stable even if the broad USD strengthens. Although DXY strength is a driver for weakness in Asian FX recently, USD-CNY should be immune similar to last year during the taper tantrum. Latest record trade surplus data reinforce the fundamental case for a stronger RMB."
"At the same time, recently released financial data for August suggests that mainland corporates net-bought USD16bn, continuing their strategy to unwind long-standing USD short positions."
"But these corporate dollar buying flows, even if large, have been fully mitigated by the trade surplus inflows, which will only widen out seasonally into the end of the year."
"This combination keeps CNY conditions in a sweet spot where it is gradually strengthening due to fundamentals, but in a way that keeps PBoC from worrying about excessive speculation."
"Indeed, the bigger worry seems to be sudden capital outflows, and this is probably one reason PBoC has rejected the influence of DXY strength in the recent CNY fixings, instead pushing it back to the bottom of the recent range."
"We hold short 3m USD-CNY NDF for positive carry and minimal upside risk in fixing, and also long USD-CNH 6.19 put funded by a 6.35-6.50 call spread."
Key Quotes
"RMB will remain stable even if the broad USD strengthens. Although DXY strength is a driver for weakness in Asian FX recently, USD-CNY should be immune similar to last year during the taper tantrum. Latest record trade surplus data reinforce the fundamental case for a stronger RMB."
"At the same time, recently released financial data for August suggests that mainland corporates net-bought USD16bn, continuing their strategy to unwind long-standing USD short positions."
"But these corporate dollar buying flows, even if large, have been fully mitigated by the trade surplus inflows, which will only widen out seasonally into the end of the year."
"This combination keeps CNY conditions in a sweet spot where it is gradually strengthening due to fundamentals, but in a way that keeps PBoC from worrying about excessive speculation."
"Indeed, the bigger worry seems to be sudden capital outflows, and this is probably one reason PBoC has rejected the influence of DXY strength in the recent CNY fixings, instead pushing it back to the bottom of the recent range."
"We hold short 3m USD-CNY NDF for positive carry and minimal upside risk in fixing, and also long USD-CNH 6.19 put funded by a 6.35-6.50 call spread."