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23 Mar 2016
Eurozone: Unexpected improvement in the flash Markit PMIs – Deutsche Bank
Research Team at Deutsche Bank, notes that overnight was an unexpected improvement in the Eurozone’s flash Markit PMIs.
Key Quotes
“The euro area manufacturing PMI edged up 0.2pts to 51.4 (see Figure 2), despite weaker readings in Germany (50.4) and France (49.6). Clearly conditions improved somewhat in the peripheral economies. Meanwhile the euro area services PMI posted a more convincing 0.7pt improvement to 54.0, which is the best reading seen this year.
Germany’s index nudged higher (to a very solid 55.5) and there was significant improvement in France (up 2pts to 51.2). The overall composite PMI rose 0.7pts to 53.7, which is also the best reading this year. This returns the composite PMI to levels consistent with annual GDP growth of about 1.5%.
Our European team comment that the average PMI in Q1 points to GDP growth of around 0.4% qoq, modestly above their +0.3% qoq projection. The strong batch of monthly hard data at the turn of the year, including retail sales and industrial production, also suggests there could be upside relative to their view.
Staying with Europe, Germany’s IFO survey also surprised positively, with the headline index rising a full 1pt to 106.7 in March. The present situation index, which has been reasonably resilient, rose 0.9pts to 113.8 – the best reading since September. Meanwhile the expectations index rose 1.2pts to 100.0, thus still leaving it 4.6pts below where it closed in 2015. The German ZEW survey reported a modest improvement in financial analysts’ expectations in March, but the current situation index nudge down to a still robust 50.7.”
Key Quotes
“The euro area manufacturing PMI edged up 0.2pts to 51.4 (see Figure 2), despite weaker readings in Germany (50.4) and France (49.6). Clearly conditions improved somewhat in the peripheral economies. Meanwhile the euro area services PMI posted a more convincing 0.7pt improvement to 54.0, which is the best reading seen this year.
Germany’s index nudged higher (to a very solid 55.5) and there was significant improvement in France (up 2pts to 51.2). The overall composite PMI rose 0.7pts to 53.7, which is also the best reading this year. This returns the composite PMI to levels consistent with annual GDP growth of about 1.5%.
Our European team comment that the average PMI in Q1 points to GDP growth of around 0.4% qoq, modestly above their +0.3% qoq projection. The strong batch of monthly hard data at the turn of the year, including retail sales and industrial production, also suggests there could be upside relative to their view.
Staying with Europe, Germany’s IFO survey also surprised positively, with the headline index rising a full 1pt to 106.7 in March. The present situation index, which has been reasonably resilient, rose 0.9pts to 113.8 – the best reading since September. Meanwhile the expectations index rose 1.2pts to 100.0, thus still leaving it 4.6pts below where it closed in 2015. The German ZEW survey reported a modest improvement in financial analysts’ expectations in March, but the current situation index nudge down to a still robust 50.7.”